Humans have been trying to forecast the weather for centuries, with varying results. Apparently, groundhogs know something we don't know.

Manheim Township's M.T. Parker is one of just 15 recognized prognosticating groundhogs in Pennsylvania and one of only 67 in the United States. The soon-to-be-famous M.T. Parker will be making his only appearance of the year at the Manheim Township Recreation and Park Planning (MTRPP) Department's upcoming Groundhog Day Celebration.

"This started back in Germany with badgers," said Harry Norton, MTRPP's adult and family program manager who's been employed by the township for 38 years. "When the Germans immigrated, there weren't badgers here, so they selected groundhogs. But when you get right down to it, I'm not sure (groundhogs are) all that great (at predicting the coming of spring). M.T. Parker is four for four. But not all groundhogs are that accurate."

You too can witness M.T. Parker's prodigious prognosticating prowess at MTRPP's Groundhog Day Celebration, Sunday, Feb. 2 - the calendar's midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox - at the Carriage House at Stauffer Mansion, 1241 Lititz Pike, Lancaster. M.T. Parker, a lifelike plush toy, is expected to emerge from his wooden home carved from a fallen Manheim Township tree around 7 a.m., then, precisely 21 minutes later - as the sun rises in the east - predict whether or not the locale is destined for an early spring.

Last year at the Groundhog Day Celebration, M.T. Parker saw his shadow and forecasted six more weeks of winter.

MTRPP's Groundhog Day Celebration, which is expected to last 75 minutes, is a free, family-oriented event open for anyone to attend.

"When you first get here it's dark and cold, but we do have lights strung up," said Norton, who will read aloud M.T. Parker's proclamation. "Around 7:12 (a.m.) we ring our bell and introduce M.T. Parker. We open the spring door of where he resides, and we go from there. I don't know what he does when spring does eventually come. I guess he goes somewhere in one of our parks. All I know is that every year when we open the door, he's there."

In addition to M.T. Parker's appearance, the Groundhog Day Celebration will feature arts and crafts; face painting; light refreshments like hot chocolate, coffee, mini bagels and cream cheese, and ingredients to make smores; portable fire places; photo opportunities; and live music from an accordionist.

"It's just a fun way to get folks out to enjoy the weather and camaraderie in winter," said Norton. "When you get a group of people together, it's a big social event. The atmosphere is one of excitement to see what the prognostication is going to be. There's either a big cheer or a collective groan. I encourage everyone to take advantage of this opportunity to enjoy a sunrise and interact with your neighbors. Maybe you'll get blasted by a snow cannon with polka music playing in the background."

During the event, attendees will be afforded an opportunity to vote on their preferences - a longer winter or an early spring.

"I actually prefer winter," said Norton. "I enjoy Pennsylvania, and I enjoy the four seasons. But when it's cold like this, I'm open to having an early spring if possible."

The Groundhog Day Celebration is one of four major events sponsored by MTRPP annually. This year, MTRPP will conduct its Community Egg Hunt on Saturday, April 12, from 1 to 3 p.m., at the Manheim Township Athletic Complex, 28823 Weaver Road, Lancaster.

For additional information, go to http://www.manheimtownship.org/1617/Recreation.